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Training camps are opening across the NFL. Veterans report league-wide by July 28, rosters are being trimmed from 90 players, and every fan base is asking the same question: Are we actually good enough to win this division?
We ran 100 simulations per matchup through the MyGameSim NFL Game Simulator to find out. Each division's preseason favorite hosted its top contender at home, using the brand-new 2026-27 NFL rosters.
The updated 2026-27 season rosters are now live for subscribers in the NFL Game Simulator. Select 2026-27 as the season year to sim with current training-camp rosters, depth charts, and player ratings.
800 total simulations. Eight divisions. One question: do the preseason favorites hold up when the games are played on the field?
Preseason narrative: ESPN's Football Power Index gives Buffalo a 67.6% chance to win the AFC East. New England is the clear No. 2.
What the sim says: Remarkably aligned with FPI. Buffalo wins exactly two-thirds of home sims against New England with the updated 2027 rosters. The Patriots hang around in close games but lose the scoring battle by about 4.5 points per sim.
Preseason narrative: Joe Burrow and Cincinnati remain Baltimore's toughest obstacle in the North.
What the sim says: The most dominant result in the AFC. Baltimore wins nearly three out of four sims and averages almost 9 more points per game. This is the division where the favorite looks most secure heading into camp.
Preseason narrative: Houston enters camp as the South favorite after last year's breakout.
What the sim says: A lower-scoring division matchup, but Houston controls it. Nearly half of games are decided by a touchdown or less, so Jacksonville isn't out of it - but the Texans win two out of three at home.
Preseason narrative: Kansas City still sets the bar out West. The Chargers are the most common challenger.
What the sim says: The tightest AFC race on paper. Kansas City wins just 54% of home sims against the Chargers with the 2027 rosters. If you're looking for a division that could flip on a single late-season game, start in the AFC West.
Preseason narrative: The East is rarely settled before December. Dallas is the perennial foil.
What the sim says: Philadelphia looks like the class of the NFC East in the model. The Eagles win nearly three out of four home sims and outscore Dallas by more than 7 points per game on average.
Preseason narrative: FPI has Detroit narrowly ahead of Green Bay in division odds.
What the sim says: Detroit holds a clear edge, but more than half of sims are decided by a touchdown or less. The North should be competitive deep into the season.
Preseason narrative: Tampa has owned this division. Atlanta is the top challenger on paper.
What the sim says: The biggest surprise in the data. Atlanta wins 55% of sims even on Tampa's home field with the 2027 rosters. The Falcons actually outscore the Bucs by nearly 1.5 points per game. The NFC South may be wide open.
Preseason narrative: The Rams are the preseason Super Bowl betting favorite after adding Myles Garrett. Seattle is the defending NFC champion.
What the sim says: A perfect coin flip. Despite LA's Super Bowl hype, the sim engine can't separate these teams at home. Seattle wins half the time, and more than half of games come down to a single score. The NFC West will be a dogfight.
| Division | Favorite | Contender | Favorite Win % | Avg Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC North | Ravens | Bengals | 73.0% | 35.1 - 26.5 |
| NFC East | Eagles | Cowboys | 72.0% | 32.8 - 25.4 |
| AFC East | Bills | Patriots | 67.0% | 32.5 - 28.0 |
| AFC South | Texans | Jaguars | 66.0% | 27.3 - 21.8 |
| NFC North | Lions | Packers | 65.0% | 31.3 - 26.2 |
| AFC West | Chiefs | Chargers | 54.0% | 30.4 - 27.6 |
| NFC West | Rams | Seahawks | 50.0% | 29.2 - 27.8 |
| NFC South | Buccaneers | Falcons | 45.0% | 27.8 - 29.3 |
Want to run your own camp preview? Pick any two teams, set the season to 2027, and sim the matchup. Subscribers can also customize rosters, bench players, and build What-If scenarios.
NFL Predictions | GameSim+ (2027 Rosters) | All NFL Team Pages
