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For years the Big 12 joke was that every game was decided by three points and anyone could make a run. Then Texas Tech spent 2025 looking like the conference's first NIL-era dynasty: a Big 12 title, a 12-2 season, and a 34-7 championship-game win over BYU. ESPN's Bill Connelly asked the only question that matters in 2026-27: can anyone slow the Red Raiders down?
This is part of GameSim's 2026-27 conference preview series. Already posted:
SP+ has the Red Raiders seventh nationally even after Brendan Sorsby left. An unofficial writers' poll recapped by the Deseret News gave Tech 14 of 16 first-place votes. GameSim's 2025 computer is louder than both. Texas Tech finished No. 4 nationally, with the best defense in the Big 12 (64.2 adjusted). Twenty-five simulations of Houston's Week 3 trip to Lubbock have Tech winning 23 of 25. The rest of the league is the usual argument. Houston won 10 games and ranked 73rd. Cincinnati went 7-6 and ranked 25th. Arizona, not BYU, was the computer's second Big 12 team.
Texas Tech and BYU both went 8-1 in league play and 12-2 overall. The Red Raiders then won the title game 34-7 and lost a 23-0 College Football Playoff quarterfinal to Oregon. Connelly's recap still stings: Tech outscored BYU and Utah by a combined 97-24, then the quarterback limitations showed up in January. Sorsby is gone after the eligibility fight. The roster around the next starter is not.
Utah went 11-2, 7-2 in the Big 12, and beat Nebraska 44-22 in a bowl. Arizona went 9-4. Houston went 10-3 and beat LSU 38-35. TCU went 9-4 and beat USC 30-27. Iowa State won eight. Oklahoma State went 1-11. Colorado collapsed to 3-9. The win column and the computer did not tell the same story.
| Team | Record | Big 12 | GameSim rank | Adj. offense | Adj. defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 12-2 | 8-1 | 4 | 116.5 | 64.2 |
| Arizona | 9-4 | 7-3 | 20 | 106.1 | 72.3 |
| Utah | 11-2 | 7-2 | 22 | 125.4 | 86.7 |
| BYU | 12-2 | 8-1 | 24 | 121.1 | 84.4 |
| Cincinnati | 7-6 | 5-4 | 25 | 126.5 | 89.4 |
| Kansas State | 6-6 | 5-5 | 37 | 118.8 | 89.9 |
| UCF | 5-7 | 2-7 | 38 | 114.4 | 86.8 |
| Kansas | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42 | 124.0 | 95.6 |
| TCU | 9-4 | 5-4 | 44 | 116.5 | 90.9 |
| Baylor | 5-7 | 3-6 | 46 | 118.8 | 93.1 |
| Arizona State | 7-6 | 5-4 | 48 | 109.2 | 87.5 |
| Iowa State | 8-4 | 5-4 | 66 | 109.5 | 101.2 |
| Colorado | 3-9 | 1-8 | 71 | 102.3 | 97.5 |
| Houston | 10-3 | 6-3 | 73 | 105.6 | 101.0 |
| West Virginia | 4-8 | 2-7 | 83 | 92.9 | 93.4 |
| Oklahoma State | 1-11 | 0-9 | 109 | 86.2 | 99.9 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Texas Tech's 64.2 adjusted defense was in a different sport from everyone else. Cincinnati's 126.5 adjusted offense was the best in the league, ahead of Utah (125.4) and Kansas (124.0). Houston's 10-3 record came with the weakest strength of schedule in the group (0.491) and a 101.0 adjusted defense. That is how a 10-win team ranks 73rd. Iowa State won eight and ranked 66th. UCF went 5-7 and ranked 38th. The Big 12 still produces close games. It does not produce close efficiency numbers at the top.
Live 2026-27 rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. Connelly's schedule note still holds: Tech does not play BYU, Utah, or Kansas State in conference play. The Red Raiders do get Houston in Week 3, Arizona in late October, and TCU on Thanksgiving night.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 tell you where the portal went. Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State, 3,568 yards, 28 TDs) is the league's passing leader on the 1-11 team. DJ Lagway is Baylor's projection (3,345, 26). Noah Fifita remains Arizona's (3,001, 23). Jaden Craig is TCU's Harvard transfer (2,909, 22). Avery Johnson is still Kansas State's (2,807, 22). Will Hammond is Texas Tech's projected starter (2,802, 23) even if Kirk Francis gets the first look while Hammond finishes the ACL return. Bear Bachmeier (BYU, 2,712, 14 TDs, 4 INTs) is the safest returning quarterback on the board. Conner Weigman (Houston, 2,636, 22) and Devon Dampier (Utah, 2,543, 20) are back. Alonza Barnett is UCF's projection (2,794, 13). Julian Lewis is Colorado's (2,510, 15).
Projected rush leaders: LJ Martin (BYU, 1,172 yards), Cam Cook (West Virginia, 1,092), Caleb Hawkins (Oklahoma State, 1,057), Wayshawn Parker (Utah, 967), Makhi Hughes (Houston, 961), Jeremy Payne (TCU, 923), Joe Jackson (Kansas State, 901), Cameron Dickey (Texas Tech, 883). Those names match Connelly's transfer board: Cook from Jacksonville State, Hughes back with Willie Fritz, Hawkins and Mestemaker following Eric Morris from North Texas.
Week 0/Week 1 stored boards (80 runs) already have an opinion. TCU vs UNC in Dublin is a coin flip: UNC 16.3, TCU 15.3, Tar Heels winning 42 of 80 (53 percent). Houston vs Oregon State is only 17.3-15.1, Cougars winning 43 of 80 (54 percent), which is not how a 10-win favorite should look in September. Oklahoma State is 21.8-12.4 at Tulsa, winning 63 of 80 (79 percent). Cincinnati is 19.5-11.7 vs Boston College (66 percent). Baylor is 15.6-19.4 at Auburn (36 percent).
Joey McGuire's Red Raiders lost Sorsby, David Bailey, and Jacob Rodriguez and still look like a top-10 roster. The 2025 engine had them fourth nationally because of that 64.2 defense, not because of a glamour offense (116.5). Hammond is the 2026-27 projection. Dickey, Quinten Joyner (681 projected rushing yards), and J'Koby Williams are the backfield. Connelly's point about the schedule is the other half of the favorite case: no BYU, no Utah, no Kansas State. If Tech is what last year's computer said, the league does not have a built-in measuring stick until Arizona and TCU show up late. If the new quarterback is a problem, the light slate is the only thing standing between Lubbock and a messy 9-3.
Brent Brennan's Wildcats went 9-4 and ranked 20th, with the second-best conference defense (72.3). That is ahead of Utah and BYU on our board, and it is not how the writers' poll had it (Arizona tied for third with Houston). Noah Fifita is still the projected passer. The schedule is the opposite of Tech's: Arizona plays everybody, starting with the Week 2 trip to Provo. ESPN listed that game as a tone-setter. Our 25-sim board has BYU winning 76 percent of them. Arizona can still decide who else makes Arlington. The computer does not currently make them the team that gets there.
Kyle Whittingham left for Michigan. Morgan Scalley takes over a team that finished eighth in SP+ and 22nd on our board, with the league's second-best offense (125.4). Dampier is back. Parker is the projected 967-yard back. The 2026-27 simulations like this roster more than a first-year reset: Utah 56 percent at home against BYU, 84 percent at Arizona, 72 percent at TCU. That is directional. It is also the opposite of "the lines turn over and the floor drops." If those numbers hold, the Holy War is the Big 12 title game that the regular season still gets to play.
Kalani Sitake's Cougars won 12 games, lost the title game 34-7, and ranked 24th. Bachmeier returning as a sophomore is the feature. LJ Martin is the league's projected rushing leader. The receiver room is the question Connelly flagged. The 2026-27 sims are friendlier than the 2025 rank: 76 percent at home against Arizona, 72 percent at TCU, 72 percent at home against Notre Dame. Treat the Notre Dame number as a 25-sim sample, not a seeding projection. The Holy War is the one BYU board that is not a lean: 44 percent in Salt Lake City.
Featured conference games are 25 simulations with 2026-27 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number. ESPN's five best Big 12 games are all here. We added Houston at Texas Tech, Notre Dame at BYU, and Texas Tech vs TCU because those are the other dates that can end a title bid before Arlington.
Week 0 is already a Big 12 problem if you believe in the Dublin loser curse. The stored 80-run board has UNC 16.3, TCU 15.3, Tar Heels winning 42 of 80 (53 percent). Jaden Craig's first start as a Horned Frog is a coin flip overseas. A loss does not kill a nine-win season. It does make Sonny Dykes' November gauntlet start from behind.
ESPN's first hierarchy game. Twenty-five simulations have BYU 29.4-24.4, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. Fifita against Bachmeier, with both staffs still installing. A Wildcat win would be the first real dent in the "Tech and then everyone else" framing. Our board says Provo does not dent easily.
Connelly paired this with the Arizona-BYU opener as a tone-setter. GameSim has Texas Tech 34.8-24.5, winning 23 of 25 (92 percent). That is the loudest number on the slate, and it matches the 2025 computer: Tech No. 4, Houston No. 73. Willie Fritz's Year 3 Cougars can still be a 9-win team. They are not, on this board, a team that walks into Lubbock and slows the favorite down.
ESPN's wild-card game. Twenty-five simulations have BYU 28.6, TCU 23.6, Cougars winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) on the road. Craig and Gordon Sammis against Bachmeier is the new-coordinator test. If TCU is going to crash the title race, this is an early chance. Our board treats it like a BYU road win, not a toss-up.
The midseason nonconference date Connelly flagged. GameSim has BYU 32.4-25.8, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. Notre Dame was the No. 1 team on our 2025 computer. A 25-sim home lean for BYU is a statement, not a seeding lock. It is also the kind of October result that would make Sitake's Cougars look like a playoff team instead of a 12-win team the engine was cool on.
The Holy War. Twenty-five simulations have Utah 34.4-29.2, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. That is the closest of ESPN's five Big 12 games on our board, and the one that still looks like a title-race game in November. Dampier against Bachmeier in Scalley's first Holy War is the league's best Saturday if both get there 8-1 or 7-2.
ESPN's late elimination game. GameSim has Utah 34.8, Arizona 22.9, Utes winning 21 of 25 (84 percent) on the road. That is not the one-score game SP+ advertised. If Utah is this good in November, Scalley's reset is not a reset. If Arizona's 2025 defense (rank 20) shows up, this is the spoiler date that knocks Salt Lake out of Arlington.
The other late Scalley test. Twenty-five simulations have Utah 29.1, TCU 23.0, Utes winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) on the road. Dykes' November stretch is as ruthless as advertised. Our board has Utah surviving it more often than TCU ending it.
Thanksgiving night, and Tech's actual conference measuring stick. GameSim has Texas Tech 38.3-28.3, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. That is a favorite, not a 92 percent Houston-style wipeout. If the Red Raiders are 10-0 or 9-1 by then, this is the game that decides whether Arlington is a coronation or a scare. If TCU is still alive, it is the night the light Tech slate finally gets a heavyweight.
Kansas State (GameSim 37) handed the job to Collin Klein and kept Avery Johnson. The Wildcats avoid Tech, BYU, and Utah. That is a title-adjacent schedule if the new lines click. Our 2025 board had them sixth in the league, which is warmer than a 6-6 record and colder than a preseason top-four hope.
TCU (44) won nine games and ranked behind UCF and Kansas on efficiency. The Dublin opener is a coin flip. The November stretch is the season. Houston is the writers' poll darling the computer will not bless: 10-3, rank 73, 54 percent in an 80-run opener against Oregon State. Fritz's trench additions can still travel. They have to, because last year's win total did not come with a top-40 engine.
Cincinnati is the inverse: 7-6, rank 25, best adjusted offense in the conference. JC French is the projected passer. The stored BC board (66 percent) is a normal home favorite. If Scott Satterfield's portal class hits, this is the 7-6 team that plays like a top-30 roster. Arizona State (48) already beat Tech once in 2025. Cutter Boley is the projected Sun Devil quarterback (2,824 yards). The rematch is Oct. 17 in Lubbock.
Eric Morris inherited 1-11 Oklahoma State and brought North Texas's offense with him. Mestemaker and Hawkins are the projected skill-corps headliners. The stored Tulsa board (79 percent on the road) is the first sign the engine believes the jump. A top-20 offense on a still-building defense is how you get from 1-11 to interesting without promising a title.
Jimmy Rogers takes over an Iowa State roster that followed Matt Campbell out the door. The Cyclones won eight games and ranked 66th. Jaylen Raynor is the projected passer (2,516 yards). That is a Year 1 floor fight, not a 10-win holdover.
Dave Aranda's seat is hot. Lagway is a higher-ceiling quarterback than last year's production, and Hosea Wheeler is the Indiana transfer Connelly liked on the interior. Eight of Baylor's 12 games were one-score projections on the SP+ side. Our 2025 rank (46) says the defense has to stop being the problem. Deion Sanders' Colorado went 3-9 and ranked 71st. Julian Lewis is the projected quarterback. Gideon Lampron is the ESPN transfer. The floor was real last year. The portal class is the bet that it is not permanent.
Rich Rodriguez has Cam Cook (1,092 projected rushing yards) and a defense that returns almost nobody. Scott Frost has Barnett at UCF. Lance Leipold is swapping Jalon Daniels for Cole Ballard (2,045 projected passing yards) and a pile of backs. Those are 6-6 paths, not Arlington paths, unless the Big 12 does what the Big 12 does.
Start with the college football teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Saturday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate. To test Hammond versus Weigman, Bachmeier versus Dampier, or Fifita versus Bachmeier, open the simulator and set both years to 2026-27.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate college football matchups now. No subscription required. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Open the college football simulator, set both years to 2026-27, and run the game. Need an account? Register free or log in.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Texas Tech is the only current Big 12 playoff lock, Arizona is the computer's second team even if the polls start them lower, and Houston's 10 wins are not an efficiency title. Utah's road sims are the Scalley surprise. BYU's home board is stronger than last year's rank. Oklahoma State's passing projection is the fun rebuild. In a league that used to decide everything by three points, the favorite is not a three-point favorite. The pack behind them still is.
