MLBGAMESIM.COM is moving soon. All of your favorite Game Sim sites are coming together at MyGameSim.com — with your login, your simulations, plus new features and a fresh look! Check out the MLB page here.
The NFC South spent a decade as the NFL’s “anybody can win it at 8-9” division. In 2025 the bottom stayed familiar even when the top changed. Tampa Bay went 10-7 and led the division in scoring at 29.5 points per game. Atlanta went 8-9 and tied the Bucs at 4-2 inside the division. Carolina and New Orleans both went 5-12. Carolina also allowed 31.4 points per game, the worst defensive number in the league. ESPN’s NFC South roundtable still frames 2026-27 as a four-team scramble with rookie stars, quarterback questions, and enough rivalry heat to make every second meeting matter.
This is part of GameSim’s 2026-27 NFL division preview series. Already posted:
VSiN’s division preview calls the South wide open: Tampa Bay enters as a tepid +160 favorite, New Orleans (+265), Carolina (+310), and Atlanta (+450) right behind. GameSim’s 2025 computer agrees that Tampa was the best team in the division, sixth nationally on point differential. The 2026-27 division sims do not agree on a runaway favorite. Atlanta wins 76 percent of a fresh sample at home against Tampa Bay in Week 16. Carolina wins 64 percent at home against the Bucs in Week 7. New Orleans wins 64 percent at home against Atlanta in Week 4. This is not a one-team division on our board.
The NFC South lived up to its reputation as a division nobody runs away with. Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay all finished 8-9 and 3-3 inside the division. New Orleans went 6-11 and 3-3. There was no 10-win division champion and no team separated itself by more than one game in the standings. Tampa Bay led the group on our efficiency board at nineteenth nationally. Carolina was not the basement team the previews assumed. New Orleans brought up the rear at 6-11.
| Team | Record | NFC South | GameSim rank | Adj. offense (PPG) | Adj. defense (PAPG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 | 3-3 | 19 | 22.4 | 24.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 | 3-3 | 21 | 20.8 | 23.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-9 | 3-3 | 23 | 18.3 | 22.4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-11 | 3-3 | 24 | 18.0 | 22.5 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Tampa Bay ranked nineteenth nationally and led the division in scoring at 22.4 points per game, but the 24.2 points allowed number kept the profile from looking like a contender. Atlanta ranked twenty-first with a similar 8-9 record and the same 3-3 division mark. Carolina ranked twenty-third, not last in the NFL, with the division’s best defensive number among the three 8-9 teams at 22.4 points allowed. New Orleans ranked twenty-fourth at 18.0 scored and 22.5 allowed. External previews that framed Tampa Bay as a clear 10-win favorite and Carolina as the worst defensive team in football missed the actual board: three teams tied at 8-9, everyone at 3-3 in the division, and a four-team race that stayed messy from September through January.
Live 2026-27 team rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the 2027 projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. VSiN and ESPN both orbit the same storylines: Kevin Stefanski in Atlanta, Tyler Shough’s second year in New Orleans, Bryce Young’s third year in Carolina, and Baker Mayfield still running the Tampa offense without Mike Evans.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 in the division:
Projected rush leaders:
Projected receiving headliners: Drake London (1,330 yards), Chris Olave (1,169), Tetairoa McMillan (1,121), Emeka Egbuka (1,013). Shough’s volume leads the division on the projected file. Mayfield still has the touchdown projection. London and McMillan are the rookie-era WR1s. Egbuka keeps Tampa’s passing tree viable after Evans.
Tampa finished sixth nationally, led the division in scoring, and projects 3,834 yards from Mayfield with Irving and Egbuka in support. That is the profile of a division favorite. VSiN’s +160 line agrees. Our 2026-27 sims add the caveat: the Bucs are not winning road division games by default. They lose 16 of 25 (64 percent) at Carolina in Week 7. They lose 19 of 25 (76 percent) at Atlanta in Week 16. They beat New Orleans 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home in Week 15 and edge Carolina 14 of 11 (56 percent) at home in Week 12. Tampa is the team to beat on the baseline. The schedule still looks like a knife fight.
Atlanta went 8-9 with a negative point profile and still tied Tampa at 4-2 in the division. Stefanski’s arrival and the Tua Tagovailoa projection on the roster file (2,722 yards) are the external flashpoints. Bijan Robinson at 1,439 projected rushing yards is the engine. Our sims treat Atlanta like a different team at Mercedes-Benz: 20 of 25 (80 percent) against Carolina in Week 2, 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Tampa Bay in Week 16, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against New Orleans in Week 17. If the Falcons win the South, it will look like a home-field rampage, not a road masterpiece.
New Orleans went 5-12 but ranked ahead of Carolina on our board and projects the division’s passing leader at 3,976 yards from Shough. Olave at 1,169 yards and Etienne at 1,063 rushing give Kellen Moore’s offense enough names to matter. ESPN’s beat writers still treat Falcons-Saints as the division’s best rivalry even when both teams are mediocre. Our sims like the Saints at home against Atlanta in Week 4 (64 percent) and at home against Carolina in Week 10 (60 percent). The path is not pretty. It is plausible.
Carolina ranked thirty-second nationally with a 31.4 points-allowed number that is almost impossible to defend in prose. Young’s 3,362-yard projection and McMillan’s 1,121 receiving yards are the counterargument. VSiN and ESPN both note the defensive additions and Canales’ Year 3 bet. Our sims give Carolina a home upset path: 16 of 25 (64 percent) against Tampa Bay in Week 7, 16 of 25 (64 percent) against New Orleans in Week 14, and a 13-of-25 (52 percent) coin flip against Atlanta in Week 18. The Panthers are not winning the division on efficiency. They can still ruin Tampa’s month.
Featured division games are 25 simulations with 2027 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number.
Twenty-five simulations have Atlanta 30.6-24.7, winning 20 of 25 (80 percent) at home. The loudest Atlanta number on the slate. Robinson and London at home against a Carolina defense the 2025 computer ranked last in the NFL.
Twenty-five simulations have New Orleans 31.6-27.6, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. Shough versus the Stefanski/Tua file in a rivalry game the previews still treat like a holiday. Our board likes the Superdome.
Twenty-five simulations have Carolina 27.6-22.1, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. The first major upset lean on the board. Mayfield on the road in Charlotte is not a division coronation.
Twenty-five simulations have Tampa Bay 30.3-25.9, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. A favorite lean, not a wipeout. This is what a tepid +160 division line looks like in sim form.
Twenty-five simulations have New Orleans 27.2-25.2, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. Young versus Shough with a slight dome lean. The South’s version of a normal game.
Twenty-five simulations have Tampa Bay 27.1-21.3, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. A narrow home favorite after Carolina beat them in Charlotte. Revenge or split? Our board says split.
Twenty-five simulations have Carolina 26.6-21.6, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. Another home dog win for the Panthers against a Shough-led offense. Carolina’s path is not efficiency. It is home upsets.
Twenty-five simulations have Tampa Bay 31.6-23.4, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. Mayfield at Raymond James against Shough is one of the few spots where our board gives the Bucs a clear home favorite number.
Twenty-five simulations have Atlanta 31.2-26.0, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. The division’s pivot game. If Tampa is going to win the South, it probably needs to steal one of these road spots. Our board says no.
Twenty-five simulations have Atlanta 30.9-29.0, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. A high-scoring home lean in a potential seeding game. The Falcons-Saints hatred stays useful even when both teams are fighting for nine wins.
Twenty-five simulations have Tampa Bay 29.8-26.6, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) on the road. A slight road favorite in a potential title-game preview. Close enough that the South might still come down to tiebreakers.
Twenty-five simulations have Carolina 27.2-26.0, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. A coin flip to close the regular season. Perfect for this division.
Start with the NFL teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Sunday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate.
To test Mayfield versus Young in Charlotte, Shough versus Tagovailoa in the Superdome, or Atlanta’s home slate against Tampa Bay, open the NFL game simulator and set both years to 2027.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate NFL matchups now. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Register free or log in. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Tampa Bay is the best team on the 2025 computer and the betting favorite entering camp, but our sims do not make the Bucs a clear division lock. Atlanta at home is the great equalizer. New Orleans has the passing volume to steal key dome games. Carolina ranked last nationally on defense and still wins 64 percent home samples against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. In a division the previews keep calling wide open, the computer and the sims finally agree: nobody runs this division without winning the ugly ones.
