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The AFC North spent two decades looking like the NFL’s most stable coaching map. That ended in one offseason. John Harbaugh left Baltimore. Mike Tomlin left Pittsburgh. Myles Garrett went to Los Angeles. Zac Taylor is the only head coach in the division who was there last year. On the field in 2025, Pittsburgh went 10-7 and won the division at 4-2. Baltimore went 8-9. Cincinnati went 6-11. Cleveland went 5-12 and scored 16.4 points per game, the worst offensive number in the division by a wide margin. ESPN’s AFC North roundtable calls 2026-27 a transition year and frames the title race as a grind between Baltimore, Cincinnati, and the Steelers team that actually won it last year.
This is part of GameSim’s 2026-27 NFL division preview series. Already posted:
VSiN’s division preview installs Baltimore as a modest +100 favorite, with Cincinnati at +170 and Pittsburgh at +550 after winning the division at 10-7. Our 2026-27 division sims do not crown a runaway favorite. Baltimore wins 16 of 25 (64 percent) against Cincinnati at home in Week 7 and 20 of 25 (80 percent) against Pittsburgh at home in Week 18. Cincinnati wins 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Pittsburgh at home in Week 10 and 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Baltimore at home on New Year’s Eve in Week 17. Pittsburgh wins 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Baltimore at home in Week 15. This is a home-field division until someone proves otherwise on the road.
Pittsburgh went 10-7 and 4-2 in the AFC North, the only team above .500 in the division. Baltimore went 8-9 and 3-3. Cincinnati went 6-11 and 3-3. Cleveland went 5-12 and 2-4. The standings say Pittsburgh. The efficiency sheet is messier: Baltimore ranked fifteenth nationally on point differential despite the losing record, ahead of Pittsburgh at eighteenth. Cincinnati ranked twenty-sixth with a 28.9 points-allowed number that dragged the profile down. Cleveland ranked twenty-eighth and scored 16.4 points per game.
| Team | Record | AFC North | GameSim rank | Adj. offense (PPG) | Adj. defense (PAPG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 4-2 | 18 | 23.4 | 22.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 | 3-3 | 15 | 24.9 | 23.4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 | 3-3 | 26 | 24.4 | 28.9 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 2-4 | 28 | 16.4 | 22.3 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Pittsburgh won the division without leading it in scoring or ranking first on efficiency. Baltimore scored more points per game and ranked third in the division on the national board despite going 8-9. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 28.9 points per game, nearly five points worse than Baltimore’s. Cleveland’s offense was the problem: 16.4 scored against 22.3 allowed is not a formula for winning the North. VSiN and ESPN both treat this as a three-team race at the top. The 2025 GameSim baseline agrees on Pittsburgh’s title even when the efficiency sheet liked Baltimore better.
Live 2026-27 team rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the 2027 projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. VSiN and ESPN both orbit the same storylines: Jesse Minter in Baltimore, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, Todd Monken and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, and a healthy Joe Burrow with a revamped Cincinnati defense.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 in the division:
Projected rush leaders:
Projected receiving headliners: Ja'Marr Chase (1,486 yards), Zay Flowers (1,168), DK Metcalf (924), Harold Fannin Jr. (815). Burrow’s yardage and touchdown projections lead the division. Henry’s 1,567 rushing yards lead everyone. Chase keeps Cincinnati’s passing tree elite when Burrow stays upright. Watson’s 2,024-yard projection on the Cleveland file is the gap between the top three and the basement on the computer.
Baltimore went 8-9 but ranked fifteenth nationally and projects 3,650 yards and 28 touchdowns from Jackson with Henry at 1,567 rushing yards. VSiN’s +100 line treats the Ravens as the team to beat on paper after a disappointing 2025. Our 2026-27 sims treat Baltimore like a home-field powerhouse: 16 of 25 (64 percent) against Cincinnati in Week 7, 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Cleveland in Week 16, 20 of 25 (80 percent) against Pittsburgh in Week 18. The road is harder. Baltimore loses 19 of 25 (76 percent) at Cincinnati on New Year’s Eve and 17 of 25 (68 percent) at Pittsburgh in Week 15. If the Ravens win the North, it will look like a home rampage with one or two road steals.
Cincinnati went 6-11 with a twenty-sixth-ranked defensive profile and projects 4,173 yards and 33 touchdowns from Burrow with Chase at 1,486 receiving yards. VSiN and ESPN both treat a healthy Burrow as the variable that flips the division. Our sims agree that Cincinnati is a different team at Paycor: 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Pittsburgh in Week 10, 19 of 25 (76 percent) against Baltimore in Week 17, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Cleveland in Week 18. ESPN’s reporters already circled the Week 17 primetime game as a potential division and seeding decider. Our board likes the Bengals at home in that spot.
Pittsburgh went 10-7, won the division at 4-2, and projects 3,481 yards from Rodgers with Metcalf at 924 receiving yards. VSiN’s +550 line treats the Steelers as the third team in a three-team race after Tomlin’s exit and McCarthy’s arrival. Our sims give Pittsburgh a strong home profile: 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Cincinnati in Week 3, 20 of 25 (80 percent) against Cleveland in Week 8, 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Baltimore in Week 15. The road is where the title defense gets shaky. Pittsburgh loses 19 of 25 (76 percent) at Cincinnati in Week 10 and 17 of 25 (68 percent) at Cleveland in Week 4. The Steelers won the North on the 2025 standings. Our board says they have to steal road games to repeat.
Cleveland went 5-12, ranked twenty-eighth nationally, and scored 16.4 points per game. Watson’s 2,024-yard projection and Judkins’ 1,104 rushing yards are the counterargument on the roster file after the Garrett trade. VSiN and ESPN both treat the Browns as a rebuild team playing for development more than division titles. Our sims still give Cleveland home upset paths: 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Pittsburgh in Week 4 and a 13-of-25 (52 percent) coin flip against Baltimore in Week 6. Cleveland is not winning the division on efficiency. It can still ruin Pittsburgh’s October.
Featured division games are 25 simulations with 2027 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number.
Twenty-five simulations have Pittsburgh 26.1-24.2, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. Rodgers at Acrisure against Burrow and Chase is an early division temperature check. Our board gives the defending champ a moderate home lean.
Twenty-five simulations have Cleveland 26.5-18.4, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. The first major upset lean on the board. Rodgers on the road in Cleveland is not a division coronation, even against a team that ranked twenty-eighth nationally last year.
Twenty-five simulations have Cleveland 27.6-27.2, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. A coin flip in the Factory of Sadness. Jackson and Henry on the road against a team that scored 16.4 points per game last year, and our board still splits it.
Twenty-five simulations have Baltimore 33.0-29.0, winning 16 of 25 (64 percent) at home. The first head-to-head lean between the betting favorite and the team with the division’s best passing projection. High-scoring and home-field tilted toward the Ravens.
Twenty-five simulations have Pittsburgh 27.4-19.3, winning 20 of 25 (80 percent) at home. One of the clearest home favorite numbers on the slate. Rodgers and Metcalf at home against the team that ranked last in the division on offense last year.
Twenty-five simulations have Cincinnati 28.7-18.5, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. Burrow and Chase at Paycor against Rodgers on the road. Our board likes Cincinnati comfortably in a game the external previews treat as a division swing.
Twenty-five simulations have Cleveland 24.9-22.3, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. A slight home lean for the Browns in the battle for third place. Burrow on the road in Cleveland is not automatic.
Twenty-five simulations have Pittsburgh 33.2-28.2, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. A shootout lean in a potential tiebreaker game. Jackson and Henry on the road against Rodgers and the team that won the division last year. Our board likes Acrisure.
Twenty-five simulations have Baltimore 31.5-25.2, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. Jackson and Henry at home against Watson and Judkins. One of the spots where our board gives the Ravens a clear favorite number.
Twenty-five simulations have Cincinnati 33.6-24.2, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) at home. The division’s pivot game. ESPN already circled this primetime matchup as a potential title and seeding decider. Our board likes Burrow and Chase at home against Jackson on the road.
Twenty-five simulations have Cincinnati 29.2-22.9, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. A moderate home lean to close the regular season. Cincinnati’s path to the North runs through home wins like this one.
Twenty-five simulations have Baltimore 34.4-26.8, winning 20 of 25 (80 percent) at home. Jackson and Henry at home against Rodgers in a potential Week 18 seeding game. Our board likes Baltimore to finish strong at M&T Bank Stadium.
Start with the NFL teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Sunday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate.
To test Jackson versus Burrow in Baltimore and Cincinnati, Rodgers versus Burrow at Paycor, or Pittsburgh’s home slate against Baltimore and Cleveland, open the NFL game simulator and set both years to 2027.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate NFL matchups now. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Register free or log in. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Pittsburgh is the defending division champion on the 2025 standings even though Baltimore ranked higher on efficiency. Baltimore is the betting favorite with Henry and Jackson at home. Cincinnati is the team our sims trust at Paycor, including 76 percent home samples against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cleveland ranked last in the division on offense and still wins 68 percent of a home sample against the Steelers. In a division the previews call a transition year, the computer agrees on the chaos and disagrees on a clear favorite: home field still runs the AFC North.
