Some weekends the sims and the sportsbooks mostly agree. This is not one of those weekends. We ran every big game on the board, and a surprising number of favorites look shaky once the simulations start piling up. A couple of them kick off tonight, so don't sleep on Friday.

Here's where GameSim is seeing upset potential.

Auburn at Tennessee

This is the biggest gap on the card. Tennessee is laying 7.5 at home and sits at -310 on the moneyline, with Auburn getting +250. That price says Auburn wins this game a little less than 3 times out of 10.

Our sims say more than half the time. Auburn wins 55.0% of 380 simulations, and the average score is Auburn 26.4, Tennessee 25.0. A one possession game where the underdog is the sim favorite and you're still getting +250 is exactly what this column exists for. Check out the full Auburn at Tennessee prediction.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (Friday)

Friday night in Blacksburg, and the books have Virginia Tech as a 4 point favorite at -185. Pitt is +154.

The model doesn't just disagree, it disagrees loudly. Pitt wins 77.5% of 1,040 simulations and averages a 35.4 to 27.5 win. Lane Stadium on a Friday night is a tough place to play, but the Panthers' offense keeps winning this matchup in the sims. If you only open one prediction before tonight, make it the Pitt at Virginia Tech prediction.

Penn State at Northwestern (Friday)

Penn State is a modest road favorite at -148, laying 3. Northwestern is +124. That's a market leaning Penn State, but not by much.

GameSim leans hard the other way. Northwestern wins 69.1% of 1,040 runs with a projected score of 27.9 to 22.8. The total is only 46.5, and low scoring games like this one are where a home dog can grind out a win. The Penn State at Northwestern prediction has the full breakdown.

Boston College at SMU

This is the wild one. SMU is a 20.5 point favorite at -1650, and Boston College is sitting out at +950. The market gives BC roughly a 1 in 10 shot.

Our sims have it as basically a coin flip. Boston College wins 51.1% of 380 simulations, with an average score of 26.7 to 25.5. That's a massive gap between the model and the market, and when the gap gets this big it pays to be a little skeptical of both sides. Still, at +950 even a fraction of that sim edge is worth a look. Dig into the Boston College at SMU prediction.

Notre Dame at UNC

Detailed Lines weren't posted yet when we pulled the numbers, but Notre Dame will almost certainly be favored in Chapel Hill. GameSim isn't so sure. UNC wins 63.9% of 380 simulations, and the projected score is UNC 25.0, Notre Dame 20.4.

Keep an eye on where this line opens. If the Irish come out as a big favorite, the Tar Heels become one of the best value spots of the weekend. Full sim results: Notre Dame at UNC prediction.

Quick hitters

  • Alabama at Mississippi State: No line yet, and the sims can't separate them. Mississippi State wins 50.8% of runs with a 37.6 to 37.9 average score. Any line with Alabama as a real road favorite makes the Bulldogs interesting.
  • Marshall at James Madison: JMU is still the sim favorite, but Marshall wins 30.0% of runs. At +650, the market prices that closer to 13%.
  • Syracuse at Connecticut: Syracuse is -225, but the sims have it far tighter. UConn wins 46.1% of runs, and the projected score is 25.1 to 23.8.
  • Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan is -245 and laying 6.5. Minnesota wins 40.8% of sims, and the projected score is just 24.6 to 22.1.
  • UCF at Houston: Houston is the pick either way, but UCF at +350 wins 33.7% of our runs. That's well above what the price implies.

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